When 55-year-old Shakeela Jan's son asked her to take care of his sister while he went to collect wood, she was surprised and worried because this was the first time he had made this type of request and there was a thunderstorm. Her unease was confirmed when she learned her son Hilal Ahmad and his wife Rozy Jan both were killed by a lightning strike meters from their house.
The couple in their 20s became victims of extreme weather conditions in south Kashmir—a region grappling with the fallout from climate change. Along with melting glaciers and flash flooding, Kashmir has witnessed a gradual rise in lightning strikes. According to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the number of lightning incidents in Jammu and Kashmir has risen from 65,666 in 2019 to 174,332 in 2022—a near threefold increase.
In April 2024, Mukhtar Ahmad, head of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar branch of the India Meteorological Department, coreleased a study on the rise of extreme weather events across Jammu and Kashmir from 2010 to 2022. The report documented 552 deaths during such weather, most caused by heavy snow, heavy rain, and flash floods.
Lightning strikes were responsible for approximately 7%, or 42 fatalities, over the same 12-year period. This problem appears to be worsening, Ahmad said: At least 20 people were killed in 2023 by lightning. "The number of cattle killed is in thousands," he added.
The valley is also grappling with temperature anomalies such as hotter summers and winters. This extra heat explains the lightning, given that warmer air holds more moisture and the combination generates more severe thunderstorms in humid regions.
Global warming due to carbon pollution is also pushing the region's winters to produce surprisingly dry weather, Mukhtar said, citing how last winter was historically dry.
The region experienced a 74% deficit in rainfall in October
The rest of this year has been no different: a prolonged heatwave, unprecedented in a valley known for its pleasant weather, has prompted the government to issue advisories. The Jhelum River has dried up. Stretches of the water body resembled a desert. The conditions forced houseboat owners to live on land and farmers had to shift to crops that require less water.
"We have less water, natural bodies are dry. Now we have to dig borewells, but that is not enough water for traditional farming," said farmer Nisar Lone, who typically grows paddy rice. "We are forced to change toward high density planting."
This September, Kashmir witnessed a heat wave during which temperatures were 7°C (44.6°F) above normal, said independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif. The region experienced a 74% deficit in rainfall in October, he added.
As winter approaches, concerns are mounting in the region over the possibility of another dry season. Last winter, with no other recourse, Kashmiris turned to divine intervention, holding special prayers across the valley.
"This year, we hope God is kind to us," said 75-year-old Ali Mohammad, who recalls growing up with winters marked by heavy snowfall—a sight that has now become a rarity, especially in Srinagar, where he hails from.
